Question by tag: How can I get the long term weather forecast/prediction relevant for Coffee farmers in Brazil?
The horizon I look for is about 2 months i.e. till Sept’10 end. I am pretty confused with the websites I have found. They give forecast for cities in the region or give a maximum of 1 week forecast.

Best answer:

Answer by Michel Verheughe
It works like this: Weather observations from all over the world are gathered by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that redistributes it to the member countries. It is then fed into different models, in different countries; one of the most used is the Global Forecasting System (GFS) made by the American NOOA.

From that, the forecast for next day is perhaps 80 percent accurate, then 40 percent for two days, 20, 10, 1, 0.1 percent for the next days and week.

If the model tells you that, in 2 months, there is 0.000001 percent chances to be sunny, does it help you? I don’t think so and that is why any forecast longer than perhaps ten days, is a waste of time.

Sorry, but that’s how it is.

Add your own answer in the comments!

by chris.diewald

Question by tag: How can I get the long term weather forecast/prediction relevant for Coffee farmers in Brazil?
The horizon I look for is about 2 months i.e. till Sept’10 end. I am pretty confused with the websites I have found. They give forecast for cities in the region or give a maximum of 1 week forecast.

Best answer:

Answer by Michel Verheughe
It works like this: Weather observations from all over the world are gathered by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that redistributes it to the member countries. It is then fed into different models, in different countries; one of the most used is the Global Forecasting System (GFS) made by the American NOOA.

From that, the forecast for next day is perhaps 80 percent accurate, then 40 percent for two days, 20, 10, 1, 0.1 percent for the next days and week.

If the model tells you that, in 2 months, there is 0.000001 percent chances to be sunny, does it help you? I don’t think so and that is why any forecast longer than perhaps ten days, is a waste of time.

Sorry, but that’s how it is.

Add your own answer in the comments!

by Fernando Stankuns

Question by tag: How can I get the long term weather forecast/prediction relevant for Coffee farmers in Brazil?
The horizon I look for is about 2 months i.e. till Sept’10 end. I am pretty confused with the websites I have found. They give forecast for cities in the region or give a maximum of 1 week forecast.

Best answer:

Answer by Michel Verheughe
It works like this: Weather observations from all over the world are gathered by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that redistributes it to the member countries. It is then fed into different models, in different countries; one of the most used is the Global Forecasting System (GFS) made by the American NOOA.

From that, the forecast for next day is perhaps 80 percent accurate, then 40 percent for two days, 20, 10, 1, 0.1 percent for the next days and week.

If the model tells you that, in 2 months, there is 0.000001 percent chances to be sunny, does it help you? I don’t think so and that is why any forecast longer than perhaps ten days, is a waste of time.

Sorry, but that’s how it is.

What do you think? Answer below!